As we look ahead to 2026, one of the most pressing concerns for health insurance consumers is the significant rate increases expected. An average premium increase of around 20% for ACA Marketplace plans is projected, marking the highest rate changes requested since 2018.
These sharp premium increases are primarily driven by rising healthcare costs and the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits, affecting those relying on aca health insurance. The median proposed premium increase is a critical factor to consider in this landscape.
The rising costs of healthcare services and increased utilization are key factors behind these proposed rates hikes. As medical costs are expected to rise by 7% to 8% in 2026, insurers are adjusting their premiums accordingly to cover these expenses.
For many enrollees, particularly those with incomes above 400% of the poverty level, these increases could result in substantially higher out-of-pocket costs.
Insurers expect these large increases to impact a broad swath of consumers, underscoring the importance of exploring all available options and potential subsidies during Open Enrollment to mitigate the financial burden.
Another critical factor contributing to rising premiums in 2026 is the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits. If these enhanced tax credits are not extended, enrollees could see their out-of-pocket costs skyrocket, with an average premium increase of over 75%.
Subsidized enrollees could see their premium costs rise by an average of 114%, from approximately $888 to around $1,904 annually.
Those earning above 400% of the federal poverty level will be particularly hard hit, facing substantial increases in premium payments due to the loss of tax credits and rising premiums.
This scenario could lead to a decline in enrollment as healthier individuals opt out of the ACA Marketplace, exacerbating the risk pool for insurers and driving costs even higher.
The potential financial impact is stark: a 60-year-old couple earning $85,000 could see their premium payments increase by over $22,600 in 2026 if the premium tax credit and enhanced premium tax credits expire at the end.
This underscores the importance of legislative action to renew these tax credits and prevent such drastic cost increases.
Health insurance plans in 2026 will be significantly impacted by federal policy changes. Uncertainty surrounding federal funding and the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits are leading insurers to take a cautious approach in calculating premium rates.
This cautiousness is translating into higher costs for marketplace consumers as insurers adjust their rates to account for potential funding shortfalls.
Proposed changes under the ACA Marketplace Integrity and Affordability Rule could lead to healthier members opting out of coverage, which would negatively impact insurer risk pools and drive premium rates higher.
Additionally, new federal regulations are expected to alter eligibility criteria for ACA plans, potentially affecting premium tax credits for many enrollees.
Such policy changes are a major driver behind the anticipated rise in healthcare costs and premium increases for 2026.